02/10/2013
The global economy is at risk of non-payment of accumulated debt after October 17
Consolidating markets in front of Federally Administrative paralysis
The global economy seems non-threatening immediately as a result of a temporary paralysis of the Federal State, but subject to the risk of non-payment the worsening after October 17th, in the absence of a political agreement between Republicans and Democrats. Then the reaction of Asian and European markets came Tuesday morning to calm the disruption of services US Federal State that was expected. Analysts '' Bari '' see that it do not seem troubled markets particularly affected by unavoidable Federal Government disables, or rather didn't look surprised, analysis of the French news agency, said: it seems that the impact on gross domestic product for the first global economy, and therefore the world, limited though it is real. 'Rabobank analysts acknowledged the '' closure '' will of course expensive for internal growth in demand.' But this cost depends primarily on the length of the stage, paralysis of the Federal Administration as Chief Economist of 'Uni credi '' in the United States, Jonge bandholz.
'' Analysts said the Forex dot com' any longer than five days, it will have a material effect on fourth quarter growth, speakers of high deficit and its impact on the confidence of economic players. Analysts said the 'Bari' that disrupted three weeks like what happened 17 years ago, has settled 0.5 percent of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter. '' Analysts said Moody's analytics 'the paralysis for three or four weeks, will cost 1.4 point of real GDP in the fourth quarter. Economic analyst on '' Credit Agricole CIB, Frederic Dokrozet: we are in a fragile recovery of the global economy with two engines, the United States and China, are hesitant, and the two heart conditions at any moment, and that would have consequences in other parts of the world. At the end of September last year, according to Moody's analytics Economist ',' Mark Zandi, the US economy has great strides, but recovery is tepid, and still the economy away from fully operational.
But the current tensions are not only a simple introduction to the actual risk, 'full' crashes to increase the legal debt ceiling, so that the absence of agreement between Democrats and Republicans is threatening to wider effects. '' Orel analysts said BG, investors still focused on negotiations on increasing the debt ceiling before October 17. '' Failure may lead to serious consequences '' on the financial picture of the United States around the world, according to Rabobank. Yesterday, the financial rating agency 'standard & Pors, if not to increase the debt ceiling by mid-October, the United States may be unable to fulfill all obligations, which may lead to the punishment given the classification' ASD ', selective defaults on payment, instead of' positive '
Although American companies operating today amid possible future failure, it is not a good environment for investment decisions, but the whole world waits for recovery of internal demand, so that the US economy is on the right track, according to Dokrozet. But the interim US Administration obstruction may benefit a number of emerging countries such as Brazil, Russia, and Turkey.
